Suddenly facing uncertainty, US tourism is changing gears
Key points:
- • International travel to the U.S. remains uneven, with arrivals declining in 2025 amid geopolitical tensions and shifting perceptions.
- • Domestic and business travel continue to stabilize the tourism sector despite weaker international demand.
- • Destinations are adjusting strategies by expanding air connectivity and focusing more on regional tourism.
March 2026 — After several years of slow recovery following the pandemic, the outlook for international travel in the United States has become increasingly complicated. Global political tensions, including the war in Iran, and shifting travel perceptions have introduced new uncertainty to the tourism landscape.
It’s bad news for an industry that was expecting a surge of global visitors thanks to major events like the FIFA World Cup and the nation’s 250th anniversary. Recent trends suggest that international arrivals remain uneven, prompting tourism leaders and businesses to adjust their strategies, including a greater emphasis on regional tourism.
“Today’s geopolitical climate, especially stemming from decisions being made in Washington, D.C., is affecting international travel to the United States,” said Joseph Marinelli, CEO at Visit Savannah, in an interview with Focus: Atlanta. “Organizations like ours must remain nimble and flexible with our marketing strategies to continue reaching audiences regionally, nationally, and globally,” he added.
Mixed Signals
International arrivals to the United States declined during 2025, highlighting the challenges the sector continues to face. Figures from the National Travel and Tourism Office show that overseas visitation fell 7.7% year over year in September 2025 and remained down through the final months of the year. By October, total international arrivals reached 5.8 million visitors, a 5.7% decrease compared with the same month in 2024 and still below pre-pandemic levels.
Despite the overall slowdown, demand varies significantly by region. Travel from several countries, including Japan, South Korea, Colombia and Israel, increased during late 2025, indicating that international interest in the United States remains strong in certain markets.
Mexico has been one of the most consistent sources of visitors. Roughly 3 million travelers arrived by air from Mexico through August 2025, and cross-border travel by car rose by 13% during the same period.
Domestic Demand
While leisure travel from overseas has fluctuated, the broader tourism sector has remained relatively stable thanks to domestic travel and business activity.
Domestic travel demand continued to support the sector, while overall travel spending rose slightly year over year. However, international inbound travel and short-term rentals declined by 4.2%, highlighting the ongoing gap between domestic recovery and international arrivals.
Business travel has also helped stabilize the market. The United States remained the top destination for global business travelers during the first half of 2025, accounting for 15% of all international business air bookings worldwide. Travel between Canada and the United States held steady, with the United States representing nearly 80% of outbound business trips taken by Canadian travelers.
Tourism Leaders Adjust Strategies
Across the country, tourism leaders say these mixed trends are shaping how destinations approach growth and investment, but many remain optimistic.
In a conversation with Invest: New Jersey, Stephen Dougherty, executive director of the South Jersey Transportation Authority, said expanding air connectivity remains an important strategy for attracting visitors.
“We are working to expand air service, partnering with Spirit Airlines and American Airlines,” Dougherty said. “We are seeing growth in inbound travel, which is exciting as it brings more visitors to the area.”
Airports and tourism agencies are also planning for long-term demand, even as international arrivals fluctuate. Nicole Martz, CEO of Orlando Sanford International Airport, said the region continues to see opportunities to expand international routes and strengthen its role in global travel.
“We are so excited about the outlook, and there is so much opportunity ahead of us,” Martz said to Invest: Greater Orlando. “We can provide additional air services to the community and further expand international air traffic.”
For hospitality operators, maintaining a balance between visitor segments has helped sustain demand. Juan Laginia, general manager of InterContinental Houston, told Invest: Houston, that diversified travel patterns are strengthening the industry.
“What stands out is that demand has been steady across leisure, business, and group travel,” Laginia said. “Most segments are performing well, and that balance matters because it creates a healthier, more resilient business model.”
Local Tourism Gains Attention
At the same time, some destinations are shifting focus toward regional tourism while international travel fluctuates. In Warren County, New Jersey, for example, lower international arrivals have encouraged more nearby visitors to explore regional destinations.
“International travel is down, encouraging more local tourism,” said Art Charlton, director of Explore Warren County Tourism Partnership for Invest: New Jersey. “People can come here to get away somewhere nearby.”
While international travel to the United States remains slow in several markets, industry leaders remain cautiously optimistic about the long-term outlook. Major global events scheduled over 2026 are expected to draw global attention back to the United States.
For now, tourism organizations across the country are navigating a complex travel landscape shaped by global events, economic conditions, and evolving traveler expectations. As destinations continue investing in infrastructure, connectivity and visitor experiences, many leaders see the current moment not as a setback, but as a transition period in the ongoing recovery of international travel in the United States.
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