The Q4 push: Navigating uncertainty with consistency
As we head into Q4, I find myself asking: Has 2025 been a good year for American businesses? In more ways than one, the vote is still out, but mostly because if the last three months are anything like the first nine, we are still in for a wild ride. A roller-coaster stock market performance, tariffs, economic uncertainty, geopolitical turmoil — it is harder than ever to look back and with a resounding “yes” say that 2025 was good for US businesses.
What do we know?
The I:BSS survey
At caa, we produce the Invest: Business Sentiment Survey (I:BSS) where we ask hundreds of CEOs across the metro regions we cover how they believe business is shaping up. We monitor and report on the results each quarter.
Looking at I:BSS survey trends through 3Q25 (sneak preview: the results will officially be released on Oct. 2), general regional economic sentiment hit its lowest level since our survey’s launch in 2023, dipping to 3.89 out of 5 in Q2 of this year. Executives in that quarter’s survey pointed to shifting trade dynamics, with leaders in our Southern regions more clearly pointing at tariff uncertainty as a key factor.
Company performance and overall health, however, tell a different story, with executives consistently more optimistic. Scores have risen each quarter — 4.29 in Q1, 4.41 in Q2, and 4.50 in Q3 (all out of 5) — reflecting confidence in how teams are navigating uncertainty.
Yet, the hiring outlook is weaker. Through the first three quarters of 2024, executives averaged a score of 4.18, compared with 3.95 for the same period in 2025, signaling reduced confidence in near-term hiring.
Support from local and regional governments has also slipped in 2025, with Q3 marking the lowest average score to date at 3.58 out of 5.
So, while we see a certain level of optimism around performance, negativity around the public sector and their support of the private sector as well as hiring has increased.
Similar sentiment
At caa, we echo similar sentiments as the business leaders we interview. Performance this year has been solid, while onboarding new team members remains stagnant. Thankfully, while geopolitical concerns, attacks on the media, and uncertainty surrounding federal decisions have not caused much disruption in our day-to-day, we must remain vigilant in a way I have not had to be vigilant before.
But what has carried a successful throughline this year and something I can control in a world where so many factors seem out of control at present, is company consistency. Consistency in customer satisfaction, consistency in product excellence, consistency in how we treat our team members, consistency in client relationships. It is consistency that has enabled us to weather these rocky waves and it will be consistency that gets us to a successful close of year.
How is your company looking in 2025, and what are you doing to ensure a fruitful end?
