Key points:
- • Houston’s housing market is shifting toward balance as rates stabilize and inventory increases.
- • Supply is rising and the lock-in effect is easing, giving buyers more leverage.
- • Affordability is improving slightly, but costs continue to limit demand and slow sales.
April 2026 — Houston’s housing market is settling into a more balanced phase as mortgage rates hold above 6% and inventory expands, shifting conditions away from the volatility that defined the past several years.
Join us at caa’s upcoming leadership summits! These premier events bring together hundreds of public and private sector leaders to discuss the challenges and opportunities for businesses and investors. Find the next summit in a city near you!
Rates reshape demand
The average 30-year mortgage rate is hovering near 6.3%, remaining just above the psychological 6% threshold that has recently influenced buyer behavior across U.S. markets. In Houston, that level is proving sufficient to bring some buyers back into the market after a prolonged slowdown in late 2025.
Rate volatility has persisted. Mortgage applications declined 10.9% in one week in mid-March, driven largely by a drop in refinancing activity as rates moved higher, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Purchase applications, however, remained slightly above last year’s pace, indicating stable underlying demand.
Nationally, economists continue to point to the 6% range as a threshold where affordability begins to improve. Even modest rate declines have increased purchasing power, with Zillow estimating a roughly $30,000 improvement for median-income households over the past year.
Inventory expands as lock-in effect eases
Supply conditions are gradually improving. National inventory rose about 5% year over year in February, according to Zillow, as more sellers entered the market and new construction added units.
The long-standing lock-in effect is beginning to loosen. In Houston, homeowners held properties for an average of 8.4 years at the end of 2025, the longest tenure on record, reflecting reluctance to sell during the low-rate period. Recent data show early signs of change, with pending sales in the region rising 8.5% year over year in January, according to the Houston Association of Realtors.
At the national level, Redfin reports a significant shift in market balance. There were roughly 630,000 more sellers than buyers in February, the largest gap on record, with the South — including Texas — showing some of the strongest buyer-favorable conditions.
Rita Santamaria, founder and CEO of Champions School of Real Estate, said the transition reflects a broader normalization across the industry.
“The market is moving into a balanced market, not just in Texas but across the United States. We follow the data closely, especially from the National Association of Realtors and research sources such as Texas A&M University, because those signals help us anticipate what kind of education professionals will need,” Santamaria told Invest:.
Prices hold as market rebalances
Despite improving supply, home prices remain relatively stable. Nationally, the median existing-home price increased only 0.3% year over year in February to $398,000, according to the National Association of Realtors, extending a multi-year streak of annual gains.
In Houston, pricing trends are more moderate. The median home price is approximately $322,078, down about 0.9% year over year. At the same time, inventory growth in the region has outpaced many major metros, rising nearly 15% annually, based on Zillow estimates.
The combination of rising supply and steady pricing reflects a transition toward equilibrium. Homes are taking longer to sell, and price cuts are more common nationally, with roughly 20% of listings seeing reductions in February.
“A balanced market is a good thing. Historically, it could take around 180 days to sell a residential home. Before 2024, many people got used to homes moving in 30 to 60 days, but that was not a balanced market,” said Santamaria.
Affordability improves, remains constrained
Affordability is improving incrementally, though it remains a primary barrier to entry. The National Association of Realtors reported that its housing affordability index has increased for eight consecutive months, supported by slower home price growth and rising incomes.
In Houston, affordability metrics show a similar trend. Approximately 44% of households can afford a median-priced home, up from about 40% a year earlier, according to the latest Housing and Rental Affordability Report from the Houston Association of Realtors.
Monthly costs continue to weigh on buyers. Purchasing a median-priced home in the Houston area requires an estimated annual income of about $91,200, with total monthly housing costs near $2,280 when taxes and insurance are included.
Buyers are adjusting accordingly. Demand is shifting toward suburban and exurban areas, where lower prices and new construction offer more attainable entry points.
Houston reflects broader Sun Belt shift
Houston’s housing trends align with broader shifts across the Sun Belt. Markets in the South are increasingly characterized by higher inventory levels and more balanced or buyer-leaning conditions, following several years of rapid population growth and construction activity.
Redfin data indicates that Houston is firmly in buyer’s market territory, with sellers outnumbering buyers by 102.4% in early 2026. Similar conditions are present in other high-growth metros across Texas and the Southeast.
This shift reflects both increased supply and a moderation in demand as affordability constraints limit buyer participation. Elevated mortgage rates and economic uncertainty continue to temper transaction volume, even as underlying demographic demand remains intact.
“Texas has remained relatively resilient compared to other states. It continues to be an attractive place to live and do business, and that supports the real estate sector,” Santamaria stated.
Want more? Read the Invest: Houston report.









April 2026 — Invest: spoke with David Barksdale, president and CEO of
April 2026 — In an interview with Invest:, Allan Rasmussen, president and CEO of
April 2026 — Invest:

April 2026 — Invest: spoke with Ashley Loute, executive director of the
March 2026 — As one of the fastest-growing metropolitan areas in the United States,