2026 midyear review: AI and trade reset strategy
Key points:
- • Business leaders are planning around uncertainty, knowing it’s here to stay.
- • AI adoption is moving from experimentation to operational strategy across industries.
- • USMCA and geopolitical shifts are reshaping how companies assess supply chains, trade, and investment.
July 2026 — The right response to disruption is adaptation. That is one of the major trends Yan Anthea Zhang sees affecting businesses, as leaders navigate AI, trade uncertainty, and geopolitical risk.
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“AI is moving so quickly, and the impact is so dramatic, that many people are reacting with panic,” Zhang, Rice University Business School’s Fayez Sarofim Vanguard Chair Professor of Strategic Management, told Invest: Houston. “Those concerns are real, but the right response is not panic. It’s adaptation.”
Only 30% of CEOs are confident about revenue growth over the next 12 months, according to PwC’s 29th Global CEO Survey of 4,454 CEOs across 95 countries. That is down from 38% in 2025 and 56% in 2022. The reading points to a climate shaped by pressure and fast action.
The first half of 2026 did not deliver a clean operating environment. Instead, the market remained resilient, but harder to read. J.P. Morgan’s 2026 Mid-Year Market Outlook described the period as one of elevated macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, even as the global expansion held on solid footing. Policy volatility, energy shocks, and central bank decisions are key forces shaping the rest of the year.
Rather than waiting for calmer conditions, the companies moving with confidence are monitoring risk while building plans that can absorb it.
AI moves into operations
For Zhang, AI and geopolitics are the two forces that stand out this year, and the divide she sees is between companies that merely test AI and those that redesign workflows around it.
“There are concerns about job displacement, changing skill requirements, and the future of entry-level jobs,” Zhang said. Those concerns are real, she added, but they are a reason to adapt, not to freeze.
The wider data sharpens her point, and cuts against easy optimism. Deloitte’s 2026 State of AI in the Enterprise report framed this year as a move from ambition to activation, with firms racing to turn AI spend into measurable impact. But Stanford HAI’s 2026 AI Index warns that capabilities are advancing faster than the systems built to govern, evaluate, and manage them. That gap is exactly the space where Zhang says adaptation will decide winners.
READ MORE: Business confidence rebounds in Q2 Invest: Survey
Trade enters the spotlight
Trade policy is adding another layer to planning. John Beckham said the USMCA joint review is front of mind for investors.
“The review of the USMCA is clearly on the agenda, and private investors are watching it closely because it provides certainty around the trade relationship,” Beckham, managing director of the North American Development Bank, told Invest: San Antonio. “We are optimistic, but until it is resolved, it remains an issue on the minds of investors and businesses as they make decisions.”
The United States declined to renew the US-Mexico-Canada trade pact by the July 1 deadline, raising questions about the future of the deal. While further negotiations are ahead, the USMCA remains central to the movement of goods, parts, labor, and capital across the three-country block, especially in automotive, manufacturing, logistics, agriculture, and energy. Beckham said the geopolitical value of North America as a manufacturing and market hub is stronger than ever, with rising interest in information technology, critical minerals, data, and energy. “The question is what the rules for that engagement will be,” he said. “Hopefully, the answer is the USMCA or an improved version of it.”
Alejandro Coss, president and CEO of the Latin American Chamber of Commerce of Georgia, pointed to the automotive sector as a clear example of that integration. Automakers and parts suppliers have built production systems across all three countries, with components crossing borders constantly and investment decisions tied to regional efficiency. “Given the scale of investment in this industry, in the billions of dollars, making abrupt changes is neither practical nor realistic,” Coss said in the latest edition of Focus: Atlanta.
Capital weighs risk
Global investment appetite is shifting too, with leaders and data pulling in slightly different directions. Kearney’s 2026 Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index found that the United States ranked first for the 14th consecutive year, evidence of enduring pull from its market size, talent, energy position, and innovation base.
Over the first half of 2026 interviews with regional leaders see that pull as real but conditional, with investors becoming more selective, weighing resilience, policy stability, energy access, and workforce depth before committing. Zhang said many companies have already redrawn their maps. “Companies used to concentrate supply chains in one region for efficiency, but many now realize they need alternatives and redundancy because the global environment has become more dynamic,” she said. “That has implications for strategy, investment, sourcing, and risk management.”
The second half of 2026 will test that. The winners will be the companies that build enough flexibility to keep investing even while conditions remain unsettled.
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