Eddie Brown, Managing Broker & Team Lead, Long & Foster

In an interview with Invest:, Eddie Brown, managing broker and team lead at Long & Foster, discussed the Triangle housing market, affordability, regional growth, and industry preparation. “A further price adjustment combined with a meaningful rate decline would stimulate activity,” Brown said.

What are you seeing in the Triangle housing market?

The market is going through a slow period because interest rates remain high. Many homeowners who bought when rates were between roughly 2.75% and 3.25% do not want to sell because even buying a similar house would produce a much larger monthly payment. Buyers are also uncertain because prices, although recently lower, remain elevated.

If inflation falls toward 2%, I expect interest rates to decline. I do not think we will return to 2.75% soon (if ever), but the low 5% range seems possible. A well-qualified buyer is currently around 6.6%, and someone with a lower credit score can be above 7%. Buyers compare what they could have purchased four years ago with what they can afford now, and that is frightening. Average sales prices have dipped from recent highs, but prices remain elevated. A further price adjustment combined with a meaningful rate decline would stimulate activity.

How are low-rate mortgages affecting owners’ decisions?

People who bought three or four years ago received a good price, a low interest rate, and substantial appreciation. Many have seen their home values rise by 20% to 22% over a relatively short period. An owner with a $2,000 monthly payment could face about $4,000 for the same mortgage amount at today’s rate. Moving into a house of similar size can therefore double the payment even before considering other rising expenses. Many households cannot absorb that difference. Low existing payments are holding back the market because people hope rates will return to their previous lows, which I do not expect anytime soon and, as I mentioned earlier, might never happen.

Is limited housing supply also contributing to the slowdown?

Supply is better than it was when homes sold in two days and attracted 10 offers. Inventory was low because properties sold so quickly, and buyers routinely paid above list price while competing with one another. Those offers drove prices higher.

There are now plenty of homes for buyers to consider, even if supply is not completely normal. The larger issue is that there are too few sales. Houses that would have sold over a weekend two or three years ago can remain on the market for three months. A beautiful house in my neighborhood sat for three and a half months before the sellers removed it to add a new roof, repaint, and prepare to relist. Watching that experience discourages neighbors from listing because they do not want to invest more money and wait through the same process.

What trade-offs are buyers making as central locations become more expensive?

Growth is moving toward places such as Franklinton, Youngsville, Creedmoor, and Oxford. I live north of Raleigh and see new subdivisions and much more traffic on a road where passing another car was once unusual. People are moving beyond population centers because they can get more house and land for less money.

Many are giving up proximity to work or an in-town location. Raleigh once had an inside-the-Beltline preference, but living there is now cost-prohibitive for many households. Home prices, taxes, and interest rates have pushed some buyers beyond what they can qualify for, so a longer commute becomes the practical alternative.

What factors are affecting consumer confidence in the housing market?

People are uneasy about many issues, including politics, crime, severe weather, and the rising cost of daily life. When the political environment settles and people have more clarity, I think confidence will improve. No single concern explains the hesitation. Many pressures accumulate until people decide to stay where they are and wait.

Those approaching or entering retirement worry that savings and Social Security will not keep pace with living costs. Gas, groceries, utilities, insurance, and prescription costs all take money that might otherwise support a house payment. Retiring with a mortgage is especially concerning because housing is usually the largest monthly expense. Some people feel they cannot retire until the house is paid off, and health insurance can itself reach about $1,500 per month. These costs combine with higher home prices and interest rates, causing households to hunker down until conditions feel more manageable.

How can the Triangle accommodate growth while preserving housing affordability?

Job growth, industrial development, and housing must consider their effects on the environment. Data centers require significant water and electricity. We need them, but residents need accurate information about what a nearby data center would mean, and governments and companies should provide clearer answers.

The housing industry, employers, and government should work together to preserve affordable housing in the Triangle. Communities can revisit regulations that limit smaller lots or denser housing in outlying areas, while reducing restrictions and costs that make development more expensive. The region has experienced steady growth for a long time. Older residents also need more choices for downsizing. Someone leaving a 3,500- or 4,000-square-foot home may want the same amenities and quality in about 2,000 square feet, but builders face many of the same permit and development costs regardless of the smaller footprint. That makes the downsized home more expensive than buyers expect.

What role should real estate professionals play?

The industry can explain the market and help consumers understand how housing prices, incomes, and costs have changed over the past 20 years. Prices were lower then, but incomes and other measures were lower as well, and consumers need that history. Real estate professionals need broad knowledge of real estate, employers, and government to advise clients properly about their real estate futures. Government can reconsider requirements, companies can be more transparent about development plans, and housing professionals can translate those decisions for the public.

Regional industry organizations also need greater unity. Doorify, Raleigh Regional, Durham, Chapel Hill, and JoCo boards should work together so the public hears consistent messages and solutions. Internal politics can pull organizations apart, but collaboration and speaking from the same set of priorities would strengthen how the industry is perceived.

How is Doorify preparing for changes in the industry?

We need to consider what Doorify MLS and the broader real estate industry may look like in five or 10 years. Consolidation could produce a national MLS or a large company, and the industry must consider how that would affect professionals who do not want to join it. Those outcomes may never occur, but planning still matters.

My experience as a Marine, police officer, and real estate professional taught me that preparation changes how you respond. The better prepared you are for something, if you know what’s coming at you, and you prepare for it, if and when that event happens, you can weather it so much better. The Doorify board and Matt Fowler have been good at looking beyond the horizon. If a threat arrives and a game plan already exists, we can follow it with confidence instead of reacting without direction.