Spotlight On: Moss Withers, CEO & Principal, Lee & Associates Raleigh-Durham-Wilmington

Key points:

• • Raleigh’s commercial real estate market remains strong, led by industrial and retail growth.
• • Higher interest rates are slowing life sciences investment and keeping office recovery gradual.
• • Redevelopment and expansion into surrounding markets are creating new opportunities across the Triangle.

May 2026 — Moss Withers, CEO and principal of Lee & Associates, has a front-row seat to one of the fastest-growing real estate markets in the country. In the Research Triangle, industrial and retail continue to perform at a high level, while the office sector is steadily regaining momentum. The life sciences segment, after a period of rapid expansion, is now entering a more disciplined phase as capital markets have tightened and investors refocus on fundamentals. “Raleigh has emerged as one of the most compelling growth stories in commercial real estate over the past decade,” said Withers, in an interview with Invest:. “This hasn’t been a short-term spike — it’s been steady, sustained momentum.”

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What changes over the last year have impacted commercial real estate in the Research Triangle, and how has your firm responded?

Commercial real estate is such a big industry, and the processes are long, so there aren’t quick impacts that create quick movements in commercial real estate. When it comes down to what’s changing the market right now, it’s more macro-level trends. We are fortunate to be in Raleigh. There’s a ton of interest in this market right now, significant capital looking to invest, and a level of new development that really stands out compared to other regions. Pair that with the continued population growth, and it’s creating a steady pipeline of new projects and opportunities.

Taking raw land through development, whether it’s for industrial, office (which is limited right now), mixed-use, or retail, is inherently a long process. Because of that, any form of instability introduces uncertainty. That instability could stem from wars to fuel prices. Fuel costs have a cascading effect; they influence everything from the price of steel to the transportation of goods. So, when I’m planning a project that may not break ground or reach entitlement for another year, the key question becomes, how do I appropriately account for costs in my contingency today?

Then there are interest rates. At the end of last year, there was strong confidence that we’d see two rate cuts this year, and many of us began incorporating that into our models. Given the current environment, there’s concern that those reductions may not materialize. If your assumptions were built into your model in 4Q25 and now need to be revised to reflect one or potentially none, how does that impact the numbers? We’re seeing a lot of people just treading water, waiting for clarity on what’s ahead.

How would you describe the investment landscape across Raleigh, Durham, and Wilmington, and where are you seeing the most activity?

Industrial remains exceptionally strong, even as our market has traditionally lagged behind others in industrial development. We’re sub-200 million square feet, which on its own may not mean much without broader context — Charlotte is at 400 to 450 million square feet, so we’re literally half their size, yet still a competitive market. Greensboro-Winston-Salem is at 350 million square feet, and we’re at 200 or less. Investment in industrial is expected to remain strong, driven by sustained demand. With a significant amount of product currently under construction, there is some concern about absorption keeping pace with what we’re building, but the long-term demand will always be there.

That includes flex space, which I call the “mullet” of commercial real estate: party in the back, business in the front, office up front, warehouse in the back. It’s a highly functional product type, and demand for it remains strong.

Retail is on fire. For spaces 2,500 square feet and below, vacancy in our market has dropped to under 1%, a milestone we reached for the first time this past January. The service industry now accounts for over 50% of retail square footage, whereas it used to be roughly 60% soft goods to 40% services. The “Amazon” effect is very real, but rather than diminishing retail demand, it’s reshaping it.

We’re seeing a strong performance from experience-driven uses, particularly restaurants, as consumers continue to prioritize dining out as an accessible, shared experience. That same trend is benefiting coffee shops, nail salons, and spas. At the same time, a lot of smaller medical users are filling in as well: the vet, the pediatrician, the dentist, who are increasingly backfilling space and driving consistent foot traffic.

One interesting development in our market: North Carolina has long had a Certificate of Need (CON) requirement for surgical space, meaning providers had to go to the state for approval to open a surgical center. In 2027, that CON requirement will be lifted for ancillary surgical centers, especially those performing same-day procedures with patient discharge by the end of the day. That takes a lot of pressure off hospitals and gives medical centers more flexibility to find space for surgical centers outside hospital walls. All around, I think it’s a good thing. You’re seeing 10,000- to 12,000-square-foot medical spaces backfilling retail space or developing new buildings on retail outparcels.

Life science continues to struggle. Raleigh has done well over the last decade in attracting interest, but in my personal opinion, life science is a risky investment. It was thriving when interest rates were low. As rates hold high, it’s a lot harder to commit capital knowing you may not get it back. We’re seeing a wave of life science space, both new builds and conversions, that are either vacant or face leasing challenges, as demand has cooled from the peak we saw when interest rates were in the 2% to 3%. Office continues to struggle.

I was on a panel recently where someone asked about the sector, and I pointed to that meme where the little guy is poking something with a stick, waiting for it to move — that’s kind of what office feels like right now. A healthy office market has 9% to 12% vacancy, we’re still in the mid-20s. It’s improved about 2% year-over-year, so vacancy is tightening, but we’re still a long way from a balanced market. There is, however, an incredible flight to quality. 

What opportunities are emerging in the regional real estate market that may not have existed a few years ago?

Redevelopment is a major opportunity. Historically, Raleigh hasn’t needed to repurpose existing assets, but today the market now has enough demand, and rents are high enough to make those projects pencil. That might even mean taking an office building, tearing it down, and building multifamily. There are real opportunities there.

Second, there are still great deals to be found in Sanford, Clayton, Smithfield, Selma, and Youngsville. And I’ll throw in Wilmington, where we just opened an office. It’s about two hours away, but the demand and growth down there are phenomenal. We’ve had strong success taking capital that came into Raleigh looking for returns and redirecting it to Wilmington, where we were able to secure a similar product with about 1% higher returns.

Looking ahead, what are your top priorities for growth, and what is your outlook for the commercial real estate market in the Triangle over the next few years?

We expect to continue performing well. Raleigh has always been a more steady, balanced market it doesn’t experience the pendulum swings you see elsewhere. We’re slow and steady, and I think that’s served us well. When the recession hit, when the pandemic hit, we didn’t fall off a cliff. Charlotte, which relies heavily on banking, gets hit hard by those kinds of events. We’re just a good mix of everything — the turtle in the turtle and the hare analogy. And with the growth we have, we’ll keep performing.

In terms of strategy for our firm, it comes down to finding good people. Experience is hard to find, but we’ve been intentional about building a culture that attracts the right individuals who want to be here, are driven to perform, and value their reputation. Everything we do is grounded in our six core principles. No. 1 is “no jerks.” There are a lot of egos in this industry, and we’ve made a conscious decision not to tolerate that. A bad ego can rot a culture fast. Instead, we focus on creating an environment where collaboration, respect, and accountability drive performance, and where people genuinely enjoy working together. 

As for market opportunities going forward, it really comes back to the fringe markets. That’s where industrial has room to grow. Municipalities like Raleigh and Cary are less inclined toward some of those heavier uses, but the demand hasn’t gone away; it’s just shifting outward. I don’t love those “dirtier” uses, but that’s where the demand is. I think you’ll see significant growth in those surrounding areas, particularly in the industrial sector.

Is there anything you’d like to add?

One additional project worth highlighting is Veridea, an approximately 1,100-acre development in Apex, acquired by RXR, a multibillion dollar real estate firm based in New York City. A significant $30 million to $40 million infrastructure investment has unlocked the site, enabling a large-scale development that will include retail, hospitality, and multifamily components.
It is an extraordinary development that is largely flying under the radar for now, because the steel hasn’t gone vertical. But in two years, it’s going to come into focus quickly, and everyone will be asking, “Where did that come from?” There’s a lot happening behind the scenes that will become more visible in the near future.

Want more? Read the Invest: Raleigh-Durham report.