Randy Cox, CEO, Coldwell Banker
In an interview with Invest:, Randy Cox, CEO of Coldwell Banker, discussed the forces shaping the Triangle’s residential real estate market, including affordability, inventory, new construction, and consumer confidence. “If we can bring housing back in a positive way, it adds additional fuel to the economy and allows things to continue moving forward,” Cox said.
What changes over the past year have had the greatest impact on the Triangle’s residential real estate market?
Global instability and elevated interest rates have combined to create market uncertainty and suppress buyer demand. As a result, the Triangle is experiencing higher housing inventory, and properties are remaining on the market longer.
How are mortgage rates changing the decisions buyers and sellers make about entering the market?
Higher rates directly reduce affordability by inflating monthly mortgage payments, which can lock first-time buyers out of certain price points. This creates a domino effect: without entry-level buyers, current homeowners may not have buyers for their homes, making it harder for them to move up and slowing the broader market.
This financial strain is further compounded by what is happening overseas. When fuel prices increase, the cost of goods also increases. This is further compounded by global factors that can drive up fuel and goods prices. The combined effect of higher costs and higher interest rates puts additional pressure on affordability.
Is there still a gap between what sellers expect for their homes and what buyers are prepared to pay?
Yes, but it varies by specific neighborhood. Overall, sellers still expect peak prices while buyers face reduced purchasing power, creating downward price pressure as inventory grows. However, highly desirable submarkets and specific neighborhoods may still see prices holding firm or rising, along with multiple-offer scenarios. In other areas, conditions can look different, so the market really has to be considered at the regional, county, or neighborhood level.
What does the balance between resale homes and new construction mean for housing options across the Triangle?
New construction expands inventory and affordability, but it is heavily concentrated in the outer suburbs because downtown Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill are nearly built out. While suburban new builds relieve downtown housing pressure, they also fiercely compete with older resale homes by offering attractive builder incentives and upgrades.
What signals will tell you that the Triangle housing market is entering its next phase?
Interest rates dropping into the high 5% range, stabilized global affairs, and sustained job growth will signal the next upward phase. The Triangle is uniquely resilient due to its diverse economy — anchored by tech, healthcare, major universities, and construction — plus a highly desirable geographic location and climate.
That helps build consumer confidence. If overseas activity is more stable, interest rates are in that range, and the employment market is strong, the consumer can feel confident that we are in a good place. That moves the housing market in a positive direction.
We are fortunate because our economy is diverse. We have a strong hospital system, an incredible education system, and major universities. Within those universities, athletic programs also bring financial activity to the market, supporting restaurants, shops, and other local businesses.
We also have technology, and the fact that we are growing gives us the ability to add construction jobs. Our overall economy is pretty stable. If we can bring housing back in a positive way, it adds additional fuel to the economy and allows things to continue moving forward.
The Triangle and North Carolina also have a lot that makes the region desirable. We are centrally located between the mountains and the coast, and we have this economic engine that helps drive things. We also have four seasons for the most part, without extreme winter weather.
What other regional strengths contribute to the Triangle’s resilience?
A diverse population and excellent transportation access anchor the region. Residents benefit from close proximity to three major aviation hubs — Raleigh-Durham International Airport (RDU), Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT), and Piedmont Triad International Airport (GSO) — which seamlessly connect local businesses and community members to global travel.
How is the role of the real estate professional changing in today’s market?
Real estate professionals provide current, high-value market information and experience that automated technology may not fully replicate. Because shifts in interest rates or media coverage can quickly move the Triangle from a balanced market toward a seller’s market, buyers and sellers benefit from experienced professionals who can help them understand and navigate those changes.
