Greg Morrison, Principal, Managing Director, Orlando, Avison Young Orlando

April 2026 — Invest: spoke with Greg Morrison, principal and managing director of Orlando at Avison Young, about the changes in Central Florida’s commercial real estate market, the return-to-office reset, and how capital constraints are impacting development strategy. “Lenders have been cautious, particularly for office, and that has made refinancing more challenging for certain properties,” Morrison said.

How would you describe the changes in Orlando’s commercial real estate over time?

Orlando was a small Florida town prior to Disney’s arrival, with a heavy concentration in citrus and, in the outlying areas, cattle. When Disney came in the late 1960s and early 1970s, it changed the region dramatically. It created the tourism corridor in South Orlando, drove infrastructure and hospitality investment, and put Orlando on the map in a way that reshaped the long-term trajectory of the market.

At the same time, other anchors were forming that helped the economy diversify. Lockheed, then Martin Marietta, established a large defense operation. To the east, the space industry and NASA were central to the region, particularly during the Apollo era and into the Space Shuttle program. What began as Florida Technological University evolved into the University of Central Florida, growing from a small school into one of the largest universities in the country, which has been a major driver of workforce and innovation over decades.

In the 1960s and 1970s, Orlando was still an emerging market, and commercial real estate here did not resemble the scale and institutional depth of major metros. The market began to take off in the 1980s and has expanded substantially since then. Today, Orlando is a significant market that attracts investor interest across industrial, retail, multifamily, and office.

Infrastructure and connectivity have reinforced that. The region benefits from a major airport with global reach, and new transportation links that strengthen connectivity within Florida. Over the last several years, broader migration to Florida and the Southeast has further accelerated growth. Orlando’s economy is now far more diverse than the traditional perception of a tourism-only market, and that diversity has supported resilience through cycles.

How does regional growth reflect Avison Young’s trajectory in Orlando?

I owned a local firm that was acquired by Avison Young in 2014. At that time, Avison Young was building a larger U.S. footprint by acquiring strong boutique firms in markets where it wanted to expand. Orlando was performing well then, and the acquisition allowed us to combine local market knowledge with a broader platform, deeper resources, and a national client base.

Over the past 11 to 12 years, Orlando has continued to grow on both the commercial and residential sides, even with the disruption of COVID. The market has been changing constantly, and the pace of development, investment, and population growth has reinforced why Orlando remains a place where institutional capital wants to be active.

What is your perspective on merger and acquisition activity in the region today?

You see M&A activity across many industries, and private equity has been one of the biggest drivers. In markets like Orlando, the scale of development activity has created strong demand for professional services firms that support growth, including architecture, engineering, design, construction, and a wide range of specialty contractors.

Tourism-related development is a major contributor to that ecosystem. Large projects and expansions generate substantial economic activity not just in operations, but also in the physical buildout itself and the ongoing service and maintenance demands afterward. That sustained pipeline creates opportunities for service providers, which makes them attractive targets for consolidation.

Private equity has been active in acquiring those firms, assembling platforms, and then repositioning or selling the combined entity. That consolidation trend is not unique to Orlando, but Orlando’s growth profile and development intensity make it a particularly active environment.

How has population growth translated into sustained demand across asset classes?

Population growth affects multiple asset classes, but the most direct impacts are in residential and multifamily. As new residents arrive, demand increases for single-family housing and apartments. Retail follows closely behind, as the growing population supports grocery-anchored centers, service retail, and neighborhood commercial that meets day-to-day needs.

Industrial demand is influenced as well, partly because consumption increases with population growth, and a large share of that demand is now fulfilled through e-commerce. That requires warehouse and distribution space to store product and move it quickly to consumers.

Office can also benefit, in part because employers often follow workforce. A growing population means a growing labor pool, and that can attract companies that need office-based space, whether through expansions or relocations.

What are you seeing in the office market today, especially with the push and pull between remote work and in-person expectations?

Companies that are bringing employees back have become more strategic about the office environment they provide. Most want employees in the office at least three to four days a week, but they also recognize that the space has to justify the commute and compete with the convenience of home.

That reality has benefited Class A and A-plus buildings. Top-tier assets with strong amenities, modern finishes, and a high-quality experience are filling up, and in many markets there is limited space left in the best buildings. What is especially scarce is large contiguous space in those top-tier assets, which creates downstream demand for the next level of product.

That is where well-capitalized B-plus buildings can benefit, especially if they are well maintained, have strong ownership, and offer the amenities and look-and-feel that tenants want. We are seeing that cascading effect where tenants move into the best available option within each tier as the top-tier inventory tightens.

From an activity standpoint, our reporting shows downtown Orlando has recovered to roughly 84% of its pre-COVID level in terms of workforce presence. At the street level, the market can feel closer to fully recovered, with more visible activity downtown and parking lots that were once empty now substantially fuller. That said, the pandemic permanently changed office dynamics, and there will likely always be more remote work than there was before.

Lenders have been cautious, particularly for office, and that has made refinancing more challenging for certain properties. At the same time, the lack of new construction means the space that was vacated during COVID can gradually be absorbed without being offset by large new deliveries. Over a multi-year period, that can place office markets back in a stronger position. Buyers who have the capital and risk tolerance are acquiring office assets at a fraction of replacement cost, positioning for long-term upside if they can hold through the recovery window.

Do you see modernization and redevelopment as the next major office trend?

Modernization is a major theme. Owners are investing in amenities and upgrades that make the workplace more attractive and functional, because tenants are evaluating experience and value more carefully than they did in the past. The goal is to deliver the type of product companies want their employees to have, so employees have a real reason to come in.

In select cases, you do see redevelopment. A 40- or 50-year-old office building may be purchased and either repositioned or, in some scenarios, demolished if the land value and demand profile support another use. That is more likely in submarkets where demand is strong for multifamily or specialty housing.

Around the UCF area, for example, developers have acquired office sites and converted them to student housing uses, either tearing down older structures or building new housing adjacent to existing office buildings. Those opportunities tend to be location-specific, where demand is clear and zoning, density, and land constraints make the strategy viable.

Where do you see the biggest opportunities for recapitalization or new development in this environment?

One of the opportunities is in distressed or underperforming assets that can be acquired below replacement cost and repositioned, either through modernization or by adding new uses on excess land. Some groups are exploring whether an office property can be partially redeveloped or whether additional multifamily density can be introduced on portions of a site, such as underutilized surface parking, while preserving necessary parking through structured solutions.

Beyond that, land constraints shape a lot of strategy in Central Florida. Finding land for new commercial development can be challenging, especially after several years of strong growth and intense residential and multifamily activity. In many cases, the path to development is acquiring older commercial properties, such as dated retail sites or former auto dealership parcels, and redeveloping them, because that is where the land is.

It requires creativity. Growth creates demand, but it also increases competition for well-located sites, which pushes developers to think differently about how to assemble and repurpose property.

What risk factors are most top of mind heading in 2026?

Interest rates remain a key constraint. Higher borrowing costs limit feasibility and can slow new development. Lenders are also still conservative, not only with office, but in other sectors that experienced rapid growth, including multifamily and industrial. Retail can be more viable in certain cases, especially with strong anchors, but capital discipline remains high across most sectors.

Construction costs have leveled off, which is a positive compared to the volatility of recent years, but those costs are unlikely to meaningfully decline without an economic downturn that no one is hoping for. Capital availability, underwriting standards, and refinancing conditions remain major variables.

The other constant is the unexpected. Markets can shift quickly, and resilience depends on being prepared for change and being able to adapt when conditions move.